Last Update September 14. 2008

Futures Prices, Spread, Basis and Commitment of Traders...

The Futures Spread and Basis are... values based on the differences between the bid and ask, and the spot price of silver and the futures price quotes of silver. The 'futures spread' is first and primarily, the difference between the 'bid and ask' quoted by the market makers for any given month and year of a contract... and second, can be thought of as the actual difference (plus or minus) between the current settlement price and the settlement price in forward months or years, measured in cents or dollars - though this measurement is more often thought of as the 'basis'. The 'basis', while strictly a measure of the difference between prices of near and distant price quotes, is really more comprehensive in its consideration about that spread over time and the relative interrelationships between those values, particularly the near and distant time frames, and indications of contango and backwardation. For a fuller discussion... Explanation of Silver Basis - SilverAxis.com...

The Commitment of Traders is... simply a running tally of the positioning of the two main categories of traders in the silver market; speculators (both small and larger accounts by individuals or funds with little physical interest in the underlying commodity) and commercial interests (generally larger accounts representing the actual physical buyers of the underlying commodity). For a fuller discussion... Silver Futures COT - Adam Hamilton

 


Futures Settlement / 1 year increments - (Basis in Parenthesis)

Date (as of) Current Dec - 08 Dec - 09 Dec - 10 Dec - 11 Dec - 12
Sept 09 / 08 10.84 10.80  (-.04) 11.12  (.32) 11.44  (.60) 11.83  (.98) 12.28  (1.44)
Sept 19 / 08 12.58 12.48  (-.10) 12.80  (.22) 13.16  (.58) 13.54  (.96) 14.00  (1.42)
Sept 26 / 08 13.31 13.50  (.19) 13.88  (.57) 14.27  (.96) 14.68  (1.37) 15.13  (1.82)
Oct 04 / 08 11.16 11.29  (.13) 11.46  (.30) 11.73  (.57) 12.59  (1.43) 14.93  (3.64)
Oct 11 / 08 10.17 10.60  (.43) 10.85  (.68) 11.15  (.98) 11.52  (1.35) 11.98  (1.81)
             

Comex - Silver 5000 ounce contract



Commitment of Traders - (Change listed in Parenthesis)

Date Speculators -
long
Speculators -
short
Commercials -
long
Commercials -
short
Open
Interest
Aug 12 / 08 37,348  (-2,475) 9,622  (1,442) 58,346  (9,083) 103,117  (1,808) 183,064
Aug 19 / 08 32,718  (-4,629) 9,907  (284) 63,301  (4,956) 103,659  (542) 184,503
Aug 26 / 08 31,858  (-860) 11,522  (1,615) 51,250  (-12,051) 89,017  (-14,642) 162,636
Sept 02 / 08 32,650  (792) 12,808  (1286) 46,015  (-5235) 79.339  (-9678) 160,000
Sept 09 / 08 30,523  (-2,127) 13,923  (1,115) 47,119  (1,104) 77,935  (-1,404) 157,065
Sept 16 / 08 29,525  (-998) 14,413  (490) 46,392  (-727) 76,767  (-1,168) 156,143
Sept 26 / 08 27,740  (-1,785) 12,844  (-1,569) 42,225  (-4,167) 71,630  (-5,137) 148,066
Oct 04 / 08 24,874  (-2,866) 11,797  (-1,047) 45,709  (3,484) 71,144  (-486) 145,848
Oct 11 / 08 23,174  (-1,700) 11,517  (-281) 47,184  (1,474) 73,530  (2,385) 143,878
           

Contract of 5000 Troy Ounces
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm